Betting On The Super Bowl: 101
Oh brother, where to start? There’s a lot of people out there that are going to bet on the Super Bowl, that are not regular bettors of football. I get it. It’s the SUPER BOWL! It only comes around once a year – what harm could possibly be done?
That would depend strictly on the size of the wager, in my gambling degenerate case. And yes, the $5 office pool IS harmless, that’s not what you need to look out for. I am about to tell you some secrets to making some money on the big game – based on 22 years of winning, and losing – and I’ll tell you where to put your money next week. Oooohh, now I have your attention, huh!
First thing to remember about Super Bowl Sunday, is that the favorites don’t usually cover the spread! That’s right, in the history of the Big Game, the favorite has only covered @40% of the time. Las Vegas knows this. Ideally for the sportsbook, there would be about the same amount of money coming in on both teams – but more money always gets bet on the favorite. Again, Las Vegas knows this, and adjusts the betting lines, accordingly. When the ‘almost perfect’ Patriots played the Giants in the Super Bowl three years ago – they were installed as a (10.5) point favorite. That is an ENORMOUS spread for ANY NFL GAME. Plus, the two teams met a month before, and the Patriots only won by 4. But the guys in Vegas knew that the betting public was a “sucker” for New England, and the whole ‘perfect season’ thing. Most of America had already lost their money when Plaxico Burress won the game for the Giants. New England NEVER came close to covering on that day.
Rule #2 is that most prop bets are also “SUCKER BETS”! You can bet on just about everything. The coin toss – heads or tails? Are you serious? All of the individual prop bets are weighted with odds. Quick, what receiver will have the most yards receiving in the game? Vegas says it’s Green Bay’s Greg Jennings. But his odds are 5/2. That doesn’t seem like good value for your money, when you consider that at least 4 other receivers in this game should be catching a lot of passes. The only prop bet that is a tradition of mine to bet on, is the “first TD of the game” bet. This year I like the Packers’ Jordy Nelson (20/1), and RB John Kuhn (30/1). YEAH BABY!
And finally, bet with your HEAD, and not with your HEART! This one is tough, believe me, I know! But, if you’re going to bet YOUR hard earned cash, you might as well be SMART with it. Example; I have friends that are Vikings fans, and they HATE the Pack. In ’96 when the Packers played the Patriots in the Super Bowl, my friends bet an UNGODLY amount of money on the Patriots, strictly because they despised Green Bay. Not a good idea. When my beloved Chargers finally made it to the Super Bowl, they were (19) point underdogs! I HAD to bet on them! Again, bad idea. Bet with the head, and not the heart.
As for this year, the bet is the Packers (-3). I think a lot of people will see that Pittsburgh is getting points, and the betting public will be all over the Steelers. I think Green Bay is a better team – and I may be the only person in the world that thinks the Steelers “D” is a bit over-rated. The best QB in the NFL is Aaron Rodgers. Pack win, 27-16.